Lithium-ion batteries have the electric vehicle market pretty well locked up. But what about grid storage? Can competitors get a foothold there? (If you don't want to read, you can listen!)
Another great article, as usual. My question is about material cost projections vis a vis the environmental justice aspect of material mining. If, hypothetically speaking, all lithium mining had to be conducted per IRMA standards, would that make some of these other technologies more cost competitive, ones where the materials used are much less problematic? https://responsiblemining.net/what-we-do/standard/
This discussion is missing projections on the rate of cost reduction of lithium-ion batteries. I think that is what is going to make the difference when combined with the continued dramatic rate at which solar is falling in price. Combine two very cheap technologies and you conquer intermittency. For less than the price we currently pay for fossil fuel generation of electricity, we can supply 3 or 4 times the peak load from solar. The price of solar fell by half 3 times from 2010 to 2020, and it will happen again this decade. LIB prices will fall even faster in the 2020s. Pair that with expansion of the transmission grid suggested in your excellent series on that topic and smartening up the entire grid, and we have 100% emission-free that is half the cost or less than the cheapest fossil fuel electricity today.
Great piece as always, David. One more name worth adding to the list of high profile NIB failures - GE's Durathon (through the acquisition of Beta R&D a decade or so ago).
Another excellent overview of an essential market in clean energy. Thanks. I was quite interested to read your take on Lithium Ion phosphate batteries but you didn't call them out specifically. They have very different properties than traditional Lithium Ion chemistries (like NMC and NMA), which makes them excellent options for stationary storage and not so great for transportation (although I believe Tesla is using LiFePO in their Chinese-made cars). What do people think about LiFePO as an option for stationary storage?
I'm with the "Let 100 flowers bloom" people. These alternatives should surely be developed. What if the cost curve for LIBs goes in reverse for some unforeseeable reason that actually puts a hard curb on manufacturing capacity? That would be bad even without alternatives. Prove me wrong, please.
Well, your li-ion competitors post is about two years old, and I have no idea if you see these when they come in, but there's a test car with sodium-ion batteries in it.
1. Government-as-purchaser has worked for a whole lot of technologies that have researched nicely but need more development. I suppose that military bases--especially field bases--could use term battery storage.
2. Why is energy density relevant for fixed-site applications? Does anybody care if an electric utility battery farm occupies one or two medium-sized buildings?
I think you’re assuming long term storage is deployed as a centralized resource like a power plant. However, for resiliency, many are looking toward distributed storage as a more optimal way to deploy batteries.
How do the different techs compare on total system cost? I mean the pressure on the donut - what's involved in the materials, what kinds of stresses do they put on ecological services over their lifetime, that kind of thing. That seems like a reason to always be working on alternatives. "Cost" as in what I pay directly now for my battery shaped like a bike, which I use for some years then discard (or recycles in some way), might lock in a less than great overall option.
So you're basically saying that everyone should own the LIBs now?
Or maybe that the LIBs are owning everyone else?
(Something clever about owning and LIBs...unfortunately I'm not that clever)
I feel like I deserve some kind of award for making it through this whole series without a single "own the LIBs" joke.
Definitely not a column where you try to own the LIBs. Was usual, interesting and insightful.
Another great article, as usual. My question is about material cost projections vis a vis the environmental justice aspect of material mining. If, hypothetically speaking, all lithium mining had to be conducted per IRMA standards, would that make some of these other technologies more cost competitive, ones where the materials used are much less problematic? https://responsiblemining.net/what-we-do/standard/
This discussion is missing projections on the rate of cost reduction of lithium-ion batteries. I think that is what is going to make the difference when combined with the continued dramatic rate at which solar is falling in price. Combine two very cheap technologies and you conquer intermittency. For less than the price we currently pay for fossil fuel generation of electricity, we can supply 3 or 4 times the peak load from solar. The price of solar fell by half 3 times from 2010 to 2020, and it will happen again this decade. LIB prices will fall even faster in the 2020s. Pair that with expansion of the transmission grid suggested in your excellent series on that topic and smartening up the entire grid, and we have 100% emission-free that is half the cost or less than the cheapest fossil fuel electricity today.
Great piece as always, David. One more name worth adding to the list of high profile NIB failures - GE's Durathon (through the acquisition of Beta R&D a decade or so ago).
Another excellent overview of an essential market in clean energy. Thanks. I was quite interested to read your take on Lithium Ion phosphate batteries but you didn't call them out specifically. They have very different properties than traditional Lithium Ion chemistries (like NMC and NMA), which makes them excellent options for stationary storage and not so great for transportation (although I believe Tesla is using LiFePO in their Chinese-made cars). What do people think about LiFePO as an option for stationary storage?
Bill, I covered LFP in the previous post! https://www.volts.wtf/p/the-ongoing-battle-among-lithium
I'm with the "Let 100 flowers bloom" people. These alternatives should surely be developed. What if the cost curve for LIBs goes in reverse for some unforeseeable reason that actually puts a hard curb on manufacturing capacity? That would be bad even without alternatives. Prove me wrong, please.
Well, your li-ion competitors post is about two years old, and I have no idea if you see these when they come in, but there's a test car with sodium-ion batteries in it.
https://jacmotors.co.za/jac-motors-unveils-worlds-first-sodium-ion-battery-vehicle/
1. Government-as-purchaser has worked for a whole lot of technologies that have researched nicely but need more development. I suppose that military bases--especially field bases--could use term battery storage.
2. Why is energy density relevant for fixed-site applications? Does anybody care if an electric utility battery farm occupies one or two medium-sized buildings?
I think you’re assuming long term storage is deployed as a centralized resource like a power plant. However, for resiliency, many are looking toward distributed storage as a more optimal way to deploy batteries.
How do the different techs compare on total system cost? I mean the pressure on the donut - what's involved in the materials, what kinds of stresses do they put on ecological services over their lifetime, that kind of thing. That seems like a reason to always be working on alternatives. "Cost" as in what I pay directly now for my battery shaped like a bike, which I use for some years then discard (or recycles in some way), might lock in a less than great overall option.