I use the newly-electrified Caltrain which was mentioned in the episode. As Alon says, it's much faster and quieter than the diesel trains were before. That + more trains/hour has led to increasing ridership (though still below pre-pandemic levels).
We spent $2.4B to electrify 52mi = $46m/mi = $28m/km:
"Netting out the elements that are not direct electrification infrastructure, this is till well into the teens of millions per kilometer. " --> Lets say $15m/km ( * 1.6 km/mi * 52 mi = total of $1.2B of the project for the electrification part)
"the RIA Electrification Challenge overall says that the cost on double track is in the $3.8-5.7 million/km range in today’s prices, and typical Continental European costs are somewhat lower." --> Could have cost $315m to 475m
So depending on which comparison you use, we spent 3-5x as much as should have been, overpaying by $725-800m.
Having lived in the SF Bay Area (with the experience of waking up and having the option to take subway, light rail, bus, motorcycle, car- and even walk- to work or wherever), I would love to hear what Alon's thoughts might be re: Honolulu Authority for "Rapid" Transportation. I'm not sure if we would have heard laughing, crying or screaming- but it would have been interesting...
Fascinating discussion - I truly think "[using] chaos theory to model bus delays" is the most interesting sentence I've heard all year! Fragmentation of authority and basically making privatization a public project when dealing with project delivery are incredible insights - and apparently "counter intuitive" ones in the "privatize everything" world. Can't remember where I saw this, but here in Chicago, the red line extension cost around $1B per mile, enough for it to be cheaper to buy every rider a Porsche Taycan. Similar to housing, we simply have to get the costs right to get more of it
I use the newly-electrified Caltrain which was mentioned in the episode. As Alon says, it's much faster and quieter than the diesel trains were before. That + more trains/hour has led to increasing ridership (though still below pre-pandemic levels).
I was going to ask, what would have been the Spanish costs for doing this? Just found Alon's post on basically this: https://pedestrianobservations.com/2025/07/31/how-one-bad-project-can-poison-the-entire-mode/
We spent $2.4B to electrify 52mi = $46m/mi = $28m/km:
"Netting out the elements that are not direct electrification infrastructure, this is till well into the teens of millions per kilometer. " --> Lets say $15m/km ( * 1.6 km/mi * 52 mi = total of $1.2B of the project for the electrification part)
"the RIA Electrification Challenge overall says that the cost on double track is in the $3.8-5.7 million/km range in today’s prices, and typical Continental European costs are somewhat lower." --> Could have cost $315m to 475m
So depending on which comparison you use, we spent 3-5x as much as should have been, overpaying by $725-800m.
Ugh Seattle's Sounder is like every thing that is incorrect. The step up is annoying and causes issues every day.
Having lived in the SF Bay Area (with the experience of waking up and having the option to take subway, light rail, bus, motorcycle, car- and even walk- to work or wherever), I would love to hear what Alon's thoughts might be re: Honolulu Authority for "Rapid" Transportation. I'm not sure if we would have heard laughing, crying or screaming- but it would have been interesting...
Transcript?
Fascinating discussion - I truly think "[using] chaos theory to model bus delays" is the most interesting sentence I've heard all year! Fragmentation of authority and basically making privatization a public project when dealing with project delivery are incredible insights - and apparently "counter intuitive" ones in the "privatize everything" world. Can't remember where I saw this, but here in Chicago, the red line extension cost around $1B per mile, enough for it to be cheaper to buy every rider a Porsche Taycan. Similar to housing, we simply have to get the costs right to get more of it