Is the Inflation Reduction Act, passed nearly two years ago, doing what it set out to do? In this episode, Trevor Houser of the Rhodium Group compares the predictions of pre-IRA energy-sector models to the real-world data on clean-energy investment since its passage.
No wonder I'm in a crappy mood. Two of my favorite "climate" technologies were the ones specifically listed as not deploying as projected, wind and heat pumps. Both very important for GHG reductions for us in the freezing high and north country. The right wing is doing a great job of "short-circuiting policy" with very successful PR, portraying these as enemies of rural and working/union folks, and just "not dependable," etc.
Last year was the first in recent memory where the fraction of renewable electricity in the USA went down, right? While this has been blamed on weather, it's also true that wind farm construction fell off a cliff, and a significant fraction of that was repowering 20 year old windfarms, so not even as much addition as it appears. And since the capacity factor of solar is typically 20-25% vs. wind at 37% avg for new, we need 50% more GW of solar to make up for wind not built.
Wind and solar and HPs and EVs seem to be deploying much more quickly in the EU, Australia and China. (OK, not EVs down under yet.) We'll see if building IRA-funded battery factories can offset the anti-EV screeching from the FF-funded media, GOP, Trump...
To me the ultimate objective of IRA is to replace energy from fossil fuels with energy from renewables. Not discussed are projections for future demands for energy. In the electricity sector
I see nothing but bad news. Crypto currencies reached an all time just this week which obviously stimulates demand. Fast emerging to challenge crypto are the demands for electricity for AI.
In the transportation sector EV's are, in my opinion, too heavy thereby wasting energy. Obviously demand projections are beyond the scope of this topic. I do think they merit another Volt presentation.
Dave's excitement and optimism about the increasing use of modelling in the policy process is perplexing.
Very often modelling outputs when modelling such complex systems turn out to be so incorrect as to be essentially uninformative (or even leave the user of such information less well informed having considered it in their thinking or decision-making!).
Dave you should read (or re-read) Escape from Model Land by Erica Thompson. (I just remembered that she's been on your podcast!)
Weird this isn't showing on Spotify?
No wonder I'm in a crappy mood. Two of my favorite "climate" technologies were the ones specifically listed as not deploying as projected, wind and heat pumps. Both very important for GHG reductions for us in the freezing high and north country. The right wing is doing a great job of "short-circuiting policy" with very successful PR, portraying these as enemies of rural and working/union folks, and just "not dependable," etc.
Last year was the first in recent memory where the fraction of renewable electricity in the USA went down, right? While this has been blamed on weather, it's also true that wind farm construction fell off a cliff, and a significant fraction of that was repowering 20 year old windfarms, so not even as much addition as it appears. And since the capacity factor of solar is typically 20-25% vs. wind at 37% avg for new, we need 50% more GW of solar to make up for wind not built.
Wind and solar and HPs and EVs seem to be deploying much more quickly in the EU, Australia and China. (OK, not EVs down under yet.) We'll see if building IRA-funded battery factories can offset the anti-EV screeching from the FF-funded media, GOP, Trump...
To me the ultimate objective of IRA is to replace energy from fossil fuels with energy from renewables. Not discussed are projections for future demands for energy. In the electricity sector
I see nothing but bad news. Crypto currencies reached an all time just this week which obviously stimulates demand. Fast emerging to challenge crypto are the demands for electricity for AI.
In the transportation sector EV's are, in my opinion, too heavy thereby wasting energy. Obviously demand projections are beyond the scope of this topic. I do think they merit another Volt presentation.
Dave's excitement and optimism about the increasing use of modelling in the policy process is perplexing.
Very often modelling outputs when modelling such complex systems turn out to be so incorrect as to be essentially uninformative (or even leave the user of such information less well informed having considered it in their thinking or decision-making!).
Dave you should read (or re-read) Escape from Model Land by Erica Thompson. (I just remembered that she's been on your podcast!)