It looks like Manchin has killed the Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP), one of the key pillars of Democratic climate policy. Three new analyses help us figure out if the US can still make it to Biden's 2030 climate target.
Clearly, Manchin doesn't care about his political future or the environment so if pressure is going to be applied, it needs to hit his personal wealth which seems to be the only thing he truly cares about. Maybe EPA or OSHA rules can be strengthened or threatened through Executive Order in ways that would make his fossil holdings vastly less valuable far more quickly than the legislation would do. "That's a nice coal company there, it would be a shame if anything happened to it..."
Predictably, they're meddling in the least impactful part of the system, according to Donella Meadows 12 steps of system intervention. "Constants, parameters, numbers (such as subsidies, taxes, standards)". 😔
I like your hope that Biden leans in with the EPA, but, as you say, he needs to do be bold; as in closer to Meadows fifth most effective intervention "The rules of the system (such as incentive, punishments, constraints)". ✊🏼
Ughhhh.... is there anything one could do to help advance some kind of climate policy at this point?
Now model the consequences of the US failing to enact the CEPP or a demonstrably equally effective alternative on international Climate ambitions just as COP 26 is beginning. I suspect the consequences will be devastating as most other countries will once again rightly conclude that the US no matter what administration is in power is unserious about the climate project. And given that climate is the biggest collective action dilemma imaginable many other countries will lower their sights and ambitions.
Red flag on the Rhodium report. Their executive actions are weirdly optimistic! They list out things like a ban on new fossil fuel plants, unless they have CCS, starting three months(!) from now, and a requirement that existing fossil fuel plants retrofit with CCS starting in 2026(!). Just from an administrative procedure perspective that seems unrealistic. Not to mention the challenges we'll see from the Supreme Court.